Publications In Press

[72] Stevenson, S., Cobb, K., Merrifield, M., Powell, B., Sanchez, S., Nusbaumer, J., O’Connor, G., and Atwood, A, 2023. Contrasting central equatorial Pacific oxygen isotopic signatures of the 2014/15 and 2015/16 El Nino events. Geophysical Research Letters

[71] Konecky, B., McKay, N., Falster, G., Stevenson, S., Fischer, M., Atwood, A., Thompson, D., Jones, M., Tyler, J., DeLong, K., Martrat, B., Thomas, E., Conroy, J., Dee, S., Jonkers, L., Churakova, O., Kern, Z., Opel, T., Porter, T., Sayani, H., Skrzypek, G., Iso2k Project Members, 2023, Temperature-Driven changes in the global water cycle during the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience

Refereed Publications

[70] Capotondi, S., McGregor, S., McPhaden, M. J., Cravatte, S., Holbrook, N. J., Imada, Y., Sanchez, S. C., Sprintall, J., Stuecker, M. F., Ummenhofer, C. C., Zeller, M., Farneti, R., Graffino, G., Hu, S., Karnauskas, K. B., Kosaka, Y., Kucharski, F., Mayer, M., Qiu, B., Santoso, A., Taschetto, A. S., Wang, F., Zhang, X., Holmes, R. M., Luo, J.-J., Maher, N., Martinez-Villalobos, C., Meehl, G., Naha, R., Schneider, N. Stevenson, S., Sullivan, A., van Rensch, P. and Xu, T. 2023, “Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability”, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, pp.1-16.

[69] Zhu, F., Emile-Geay, J., Anchukaitis, K.J., McKay, N.P., Stevenson, S. and Meng, Z., 2023. “A pseudoproxy emulation of the PAGES 2k database using a hierarchy of proxy system models”, Scientific Data, 10(1), p.624.

[68] Falster, G., Konecky, B., Coats, S. and Stevenson, S., 2023. “Forced changes in the Pacific Walker circulation over the past millennium”, Nature, pp.1-8.

[67] Dee, S.G., Bailey, A., Conroy, J.L., Atwood, A., Stevenson, S., Nusbaumer, J. and Noone, D., 2023. “Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiers”, Environmental Research: Climate.

[66] Stevenson, S., Huang, X., Zhao, Y., Di Lorenzo, E., Newman, M., van Roekel, L., Xu, T. and Capotondi, A., 2023. Ensemble spread behavior in coupled climate models: Insights from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 large ensemble. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15(7), p.e2023MS003653.

[65] Zhao, Y., Di Lorenzo, E., Newman, M., Capotondi, A. and Stevenson, S., 2023. A Pacific tropical decadal variability challenge for climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(15), p.e2023GL104037.

[64] Huang, X. and Stevenson, S., 2023. Contributions of climate change and ENSO variability to future precipitation extremes over California. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(12), p.e2023GL103322.

[63] Di Lorenzo, E., Xu, T., Zhao, Y., Newman, M., Capotondi, A., Stevenson, S., Amaya, D.J., Anderson, B.T., Ding, R., Furtado, J.C. and Joh, Y., 2023. Modes and mechanisms of pacific decadal-scale variability. Annual Review of Marine Science, 15, pp.249-275.

[62] Xu, T., Newman, M., Capotondi, A., Stevenson, S., Di Lorenzo, E. and Alexander, M.A., 2022. An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability. Nature Communications, 13(1), p.7396.

[61] Cook, B.I., Smerdon, J.E., Cook, E.R., Williams, A.P., Anchukaitis, K.J., Mankin, J.S., Allen, K., Andreu-Hayles, L., Ault, T.R., Belmecheri, S. , Coats, S., Coulthard, B., Fosu, B., Grierson, P., Griffin, D., Herrera, D. A., Ionita, M., Lehner, F., Leland, C., Marvel, K., Moralse, M. S., Mishra, C., Ngoma, J., Nguyen, H., O’Donnell, A., Palmer, J., Rao, M., Rodriguez-Caton, M., Seager, R., Stahle, D. W., Stevenson, S., Thapa, U., Varuolo-Clarke, A. M., Wise, E. K. Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene. Nat Rev Earth Environ 3, 741–757 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00329-1

[60] Carrillo, C.M., Coats, S., Newman, M., Herrera, D.A., Li, X., Moore, R., Shin, S.I., Stevenson, S., Lehner, F. and Ault, T.R., 2022. Megadrought: a series of unfortunate La Niña events?. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(21), p.e2021JD036376.

[59] Maher, N., Wills, R.C.J., DiNezio, P., Klavans, J., Milinski, S., Sanchez, S.C., Stevenson, S., Stuecker, M.F. and Wu, X., 2022. The future of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences. Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2022, pp.1-28.

[58] Harrison, C., Rohr, T., Duvivier, A., Maroon, E., Bardeen, C., Coupe, J., Lovenduski, N., Neubauer, P., Rangel, C., Robock, A., Stevens, J., Stevenson, S., & Toon, O. B. 2022, “A New Ocean State After Nuclear Winter”, AGU Advances, 3(4):e2021AV000610

[57] Thompson, D.M., Conroy, J.L., Konecky, B.L., Stevenson, S., DeLong, K.L., McKay, N., Reed, E., Jonkers, L. and Carré, M., 2022, “Identifying hydro‐sensitive coral δ18O records for improved high‐resolution temperature and salinity reconstructions”. Geophysical Research Letters, p.e2021GL096153.

[56] Touma, D., Stevenson, S., Swain, D.L., Singh, D., Kalashnikov, D.A. and Huang, X., 2022. “Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States”. Science Advances, 8(13), p.eabm0320.

[55] Stevenson, S., Coats, S., Touma, D., Cole, J., Lehner, F., Fasullo, J. and Otto-Bliesner, B., 2022. “Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(12), p.e2108124119.

[54] Luo, X., Dee, S., Stevenson, S., Okumura, Y., Steiger, N. and Parsons, L., 2022. “Last Millennium ENSO Diversity and North American Teleconnections: New Insights From Paleoclimate Data Assimilation”. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 37(3), p.e2021PA004283.

[53] Thapa, U., Stevenson, S., & Midhun, M. 2021, “Orbital forcing strongly influences the poleward shift of the Himalayan subtropical jet over the past millennium”, Geophysical Research Letters, 49(3), p.e2021GL095955.

[52] Falster, G., Konecky, B., Coats, S., Stevenson, S., Madhavan, M. 2021, “Imprint of the Pacific Walker circulation in global precipitation δ18O”, Journal of Climate, 34(21), pp.8579-8597.

[51] O’Connor, G., Cobb, K. M., Sayani, H. R., Atwood, A. T., Grothe, P. R., Stevenson, S., Baum, ., Chen, T., Claar, D., Hitt, N. T., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Merrifield, M. A., Schmidt, G. A., & Walter, R. 2021, “Coral oxygen isotopic records capture the 2015/2016 El Niño event in the central equatorial Pacific", Geophysical Research Letters, p.e2021GL094036.

[50] Huang, X. & Stevenson, S. 2021, “Connections Between Mean North Pacific Circulation and Western US Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate”, Earth’s Future, 9(6), p.e2020EF001944.

[49] Coupe, J., Stevenson, S., Lovenduski, N., Rohr, T., Harrison, C., Robock, A., Olivarez, H., Bardeen, C., & Toon, O. B. 2021, “Nuclear Niño response observed in simulations of nuclear war scenarios”, Communications Earth and Environment, 2, 18
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[48] Touma, D., Stevenson, S., Lehner, F. & Coats, S., 2021, “Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather”, Nature Communications, 12, 212
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47] Feng, X., Ding, Q., Wu, L., Jones, C., Baxter, I., Tardif, R., Stevenson, S., Emile-Geay, J., Mitchell, J., Carvalho, L., Wang, H., & Steig, E. 2020, “A multidecadal-scale tropically-driven global teleconnection over the past millennium and its recent strengthening”, Journal of Climate
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[46] Madhavan, M., Stevenson, S., & Cole, J. 2020, “Oxygen Isotopic Signatures of Major Climate Modes and Implications for Detectability in Speleothems”, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, 1, e2020GL089515
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[45] Zhao, Y., Di Lorenzo, E., Sun, D., Newman, M., Stevenson, S. 2020, “The Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and ENSO precursor in CMIP5 Models”, Journal of Climate, 34, 3, 1023–1045
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[44] Scherrer, K., Harrison, C. S., Heneghan, R., Galbraith, E. D., Bardeen, C. G., Jagermeyr, J., Lovenduski, N., Luna, A., Robock, A., Stevens, J., Stevenson, S., Toon, O. B., & Xia, L. 2020, “Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war”, PNAS, 117 (47) 29748-29758
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[43] Stevenson, S., Wittenberg, A., Fasullo, J., Coats, S. & Otto-Bliesner, B. 2020, “Understanding Diverse Model Projections of 21st Century Extreme El Nino”, Journal of Climate, 34, 2, 449–464
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[42] Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Stevenson, S., Fasullo, J. T., Otto-Bliesner, B., & Ault, T. R. 2020, “Paleoclimate Constraints on the Spatiotemporal Character of Past and Future Droughts”, Journal of Climate, 33, 22, 9883–9903
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[41] Deser, C., Phillips, A., Simpson, I. R., Rosenbloom, N., Coleman, D., Lehner, F., Pendergrass, A., DiNezio, P., & Stevenson, S. 2020, “Isolating the Evolving Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases: A New CESM1 Large Ensemble Community Resource”, Journal of Climate, 33, 18, 7835–7858
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[40] Huang, X., Stevenson, S., & Hall, A. 2020, “Future warming and intensification of precipitation extremes: A ‘double whammy’ leading to increasing flood risk in California”, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, 16, e2020GL088679
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[39] Dee, S., Okumura, Y., Stevenson, S., & DiNezio, P. 2020, “Enhanced North American ENSO teleconnections during the Little Ice Age revealed by Paleoclimate Data Assimilation”, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, 15, e2020GL087504
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[38] McGregor, S., Khodri, M., Maher, N., Pausata, F. S. R., & Stevenson, S. 2020, “The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO”, In El Nino Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate, Michael J. McPhaden, Agus Santoso, and Wenju Cai (Eds). Wiley.
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[37] Brown, J. R., Brierley, C. M., An, S.-I., Guarino, M. V., Stevenson, S., Williams, C. J. R., Zhang, Q., Zhao, A., Braconnot, P., Brady, E. C., Chandan, D., D’Agostino, R., Guo, C., LeGrande, A. N., Lohmann, G., Morozona, P. A. Ohgaito, R., O’ishi, R., Otto-Bliesner, B., Shi, X., Sime, L., Zhang, Z., Zheng, W. 2020, “ Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models”, Climate of the Past, 16, 1777–1805
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[36] Konecky, B., McKay, N. P., Churakova, O. V., Comas-Bru, L., Dassie, E. P., DeLong, K. L., Falster, G., Fischer, M. J., Jones, M. D., Jonkers, L., Kaufman, D. S, Leduc, G., Managave, S. R., Martrat, B., Opel., T., Orsi, A. J., Partin, J. W., Sayani, H. R., Thomas, E. K., Thompson, D. M., Tyler, J. J., Abram, N. J., Atwood, A. R., Conroy, J. L., Kern, Z., Porter, T. J., Stevenson, S., Von Gunten, L., Braun, K., Carre, M., Dee, S. G., Incarbona, A., Kaushal, N., Klaebe, R. M., Kolus, H. R., Mortyn, P. G., Moy, A. D., Roop, H. A., Sicre, M.-A 2020, “The Iso2k Database: A global compilation of paleo-𝛿18O and 𝛿2H records to aid understanding of Common Era climate”, Earth System Science Discussions, 12, 2261–2288
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[35] Lovenduski, N., Harrison, C. H., Olivarez, H., Bardeen, C. G., Toon, O. B., Coupe, J., Robock, A., Rohr, T., & Stevenson, S. 2020, “The Potential Impact of Nuclear Conflict on Ocean Acidification”, Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (3), e2019GL086246
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[34] Huang, X., Swain, D. L., Walton, D. B., Stevenson, S., & Hall, A. 2020, “Simulating and Evaluating Atmospheric River-Induced Precipitation Extremes Along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Studies from 1980-2017”, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 125 (4), e2019JD031554
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[33] Touma, D., Stevenson, S., Camargo, S. J., Horton, D. E., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. 2019, “Variations in the Intensity and Spatial Extent of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation”, Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (23), 13992-14002
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[32] Fasullo, J., Otto-Bliesner, B., & Stevenson, S. 2019, “The Influence of Volcanic Aerosol Meridional Structure on Monsoon Responses over the Last Millennium”, Geophysical Research Letters, in press

[31] Stevenson, S., Brady, E., Otto-Bliesner, B., Tomas, R., Nusbaumer, J., Tabor, C., & Noone, D. 2019, “Isotopic Expressions of Last Millennium Volcanic Eruptions”, Paleoceanography & Paleoclimatology, 34 (8), 1534-1552
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[30] Verona, L., Wainer, I.,& Stevenson, S. 2019, “Volcanically Triggered Ocean Warming Near the Antarctic Peninsula”, Nature Scientific Reports, 9, 9462
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[29] McGregor, S., Khodri, M., Maher, N., Pausata, F. S. R. & Stevenson, S. 2019, “The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO”, AGU Books, submitted

[29] Brady, E., Stevenson, S., Bailey, D., Liu, Z., Noone, D., Nusbaumer, J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Tabor, C., Tomas, R., Wong, T., Zhang, J., & Zhu, J.2019, “The connected isotopic water cycle in the Community Earth System Model”, JAMES, 11 (8), 2547-2566
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[28] Fasullo, J. T., Otto-Bliesner, B., & Stevenson, S. 2018, “ENSO’s Changing Influence on Heat Waves and Wildfire in a Warming Climate”, Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (17), 9216-9225
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[27] Stevenson, S., Powell, B., Cobb, K., Merrifield, M., Nusbaumer, J. & Noone, D. 2018, “20th Century Seawater 𝜹18O Dynamics and Implications for Coral-Based Climate Reconstruction”, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 33, 606-625

[26] Stevenson, S., Overpeck, J. T., Fasullo, J., Coats, S., Parsons, L., Otto-Bliesner, B., Ault, T. R., Loope, G., & Cole, J. 2018, “Climate Variability, Volcanic Forcing, and Last Millennium Hydroclimate Extremes”, Journal of Climate, 31, 4309–4327
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[25] Gregoire, L. J., Ivanovic, R., Maycock, A. C., Valdes, P. J., & Stevenson, S. 2017, “Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate”, Climate Dynamics

[24] Ault, T. R., St. George, S., Smerdon, J., Coats, S., Mankin, J., Carrillo, C., Cook, B., & Stevenson, S. 2017, “A robust null hypothesis for the potential causes of megadrought in western North America”, Journal of Climate,  in press
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[23] Smerdon, J., Luterbacher, J., Phipps, S., Anchukaitis, K., Ault, T., Coats, S., Cobb, K., Cook, B., Colose, C., Felis, T., Gallant, A., Jungclaus, J., Konecky, B., LeGrande, A., Lewis, S., Lopatka, A., Man, W., Mankin, J., Maxwell, J.,Bette Otto-Bliesner, Partin, J., Singh, D., Steiger, N., Stevenson, S., Tierney, J., Zanchettin, D., Zhang, H., Atwood, A., Andreu-Hayles, L., Baek, S., Buckley, B., Cook, E., D'Arrigo, R., Dee, S., Griffiths, M.,  Kulkarni, C., Kushnir, Y., Lehner, F., Leland, C., Linderholm, H., Okazaki, A., Palmer, J., Piovano, E., Raible, C., Rao, M., Scheff, J., Schmidt, G., Seager, R., Widmann, M., Williams, A. P., and Xoplaki, E. 2017, “Comparing data and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era”, Climate of the Past PAGES 2k special issue, submitted
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[22] Fasullo, J. T., Tomas, R., Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E. & Wahl, E. 2017, “The Amplifying Influence of Increased Ocean Stratification on A Future Year Without A Summer”, Nature Communications, in revision
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[21] Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Fasullo, J., Tomas, R., & Gao, C. 2017, “The Role of Eruption Season in Reconciling Model and Proxy Responses to Tropical Volcanism”, PNAS, 114, 8, 1822-1826, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1612505114
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[20] Dassie, E. & MARPA Project Members 2017, “Save Our Marine Annually-Resolved Proxy Archives”, EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union
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[19] Stevenson, S., Capotondi, A., Fasullo, J. & Otto-Bliesner, B., 2017, “Forced Changes to 20th Century ENSO Diversity in a Last Millennium Context”, Climate Dynamics ENSO diversity special collection, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3573-5
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[18] Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Fasullo, J. & Brady, E. 2016, “El Nino-Like Hydroclimate Responses to Last Millennium Volcanic Eruptions”, Journal of Climate, 29, 2907-2921
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[17] Stevenson, S., Powell, B., Cobb, K., Merrifield, M., Nusbaumer, J., & Noone, D. 2015, “Characterizing Seawater Oxygen Isotopic Variability in a Regional Ocean Modeling Framework: Implications for Coral Proxy Records”, Paleoceanography, 30 (11), 1573-1593
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[16] Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E., Fasullo, J., Jahn, A., Landrum, L., Rosenbloom, N., Stevenson, S., Fasullo, J., Mai, A. & Strand, G. 2015 “Climate Variability and Change since 850 C.E.: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model (CESM)”, BAMS, 97 (5), 735-754, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1
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[15] Bracegirdle, T. J., Bertler, J., Carleton, A. M., Ding, Q., Fogwill, J., Fyfe, J. C., Hellmer, H., Karpechko, A. Y., Kusahara, K., Larour, E., Mayewski, P. A., Meier, W. N., Polvani, L. M., Russell, J. M., Stevenson, S., Turner, J., van Wessem, J. M., & Wainer, I. 2015, “A process-based approach to climate model evaluation for Antarctica and the Southern Ocean”, BAMS, 92, ES23-ES26, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00108.1
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[14] Carilli, J., McGregor, H.V., Gaudry, J., Stevenson, S., Donner, S., Gagan, M., Wong, H. & Fink, D., 2015 “Response to comment: Geochemical records from equatorial Pacific corals suggest a weakening Walker circulation”, Paleoceanography, 29 (11), 1031-1045

[13] Chikamoto, Y., Timmermann, A., Stevenson, S. & Langford, S. 2015, “ Decadal predictability of soil water, vegetation, and wildfire frequency over North America”, Climate Dynamics
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[12] Stevenson, S., Timmermann, A., Chikamoto, Y. & Langford, S. 2015, “Stochastically Generated North American Megadroughts”, Journal of Climate, 28 (5), 1865-1880
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[11] Carilli, J., McGregor, H.V., Gaudry, J., Stevenson, S., Donner, S., Gagan, M., Wong, H. & Fink, D., 2014 “Geochemical records from equatorial Pacific corals suggest a weakening Walker circulation”, Paleoceanography, 29 (11), 1031-1045
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[10] Langford, S., Stevenson, S., & Noone, D. 2014, “Analysis of Low-Frequency Precipitation Variability over North America in the CMIP5 20th Century Simulations”, Journal of Climate, 27, 2735-2756
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[9] Haney, S., Bachman, S., Cooper, B., Haney, S., Kupper, S., McCaffrey, K., van Roekel, L., Stevenson, S., Webb, A., Fox-Kemper, B. and Ferrari, R. 2013: “Hurricane wake restratification by 1, 2 and 3-dimensional processes”, Journal of Marine Research, 70(6), 824-850
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[8] Stevenson, S., McGregor, H.V., Phipps, S. & Fox-Kemper, B. 2013, “Quantifying Errors in Coral-Based ENSO Estimates: Towards Improved Forward Modeling of δ18O”, Paleoceanography, 28, 1-17
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[7] Phipps, S., McGregor, H. V.,  Gergis, J., Gallant, A., Neukom, R., Stevenson, S.,  Ackerley, D., Brown, J., Fischer, M., Lorrey, D.,  & van Ommen, T. 2013, “Palaeoclimate data-model integration: Concepts and application to the climate of the past 1,500 years”, Journal ofClimate Aus2K special issue, 26, 6915-6936.
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[6] Stevenson, S., Rajagopalan, B., & Fox-Kemper, B. 2013, “Generalized Linear Modeling of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation with Application to Seasonal Forecasting and Climate Change Projections”, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 118 (8), 3764-3781        
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[5] Stevenson, S., Fox-Kemper, B. & Jochum, M.: 2012, “Understanding the ENSO-CO2 Link Using Stabilized Climate Simulations”, Journal of Climate, 25 (22), 7917-7936           
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[4] Bates, S. C., Fox-Kemper, B., Jayne, S., Large, W. G., Stevenson, S., & Yeager, S. G.: 2012, “Seasonal to interannual variability in air-sea fluxes and the upper-ocean”, Journal of Climate CCSM4 special issue, 25 (22), 7781-7801             
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[3] Stevenson, S. 2012, “Significant Changes to ENSO Strength and Impacts in the 21st Century: Results from CMIP5”,
Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L17703       
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[2] Stevenson, S., Fox-Kemper, B., Jochum, M., Neale, R., Deser, C. & Meehl, G. 2012, “Will There Be A Significant Change to El Niño in the 21st Century?”, Journal of Climate CCSM4 special issue, 25, 2129-2145 (doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00252.1)         
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[1] Stevenson, S., Fox-Kemper, B., Jochum, M., Rajagopalan, B. & Yeager, S.: 2010, “ENSO Model Validation Using Wavelet Probability Analysis”, Journal of Climate, 23, 5540-5547       
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